Rebecca Ford: I’m not sure this is a piece either of us would have anticipated writing a year ago. For many months, Wicked—the long-gestating musical adaptation—wasn’t a film we were seriously considering as a part of the awards race. That’s partially our fault, because musicals have such a spotty history at the Oscars, and partially not our fault, because representatives for the film made it very clear to us that their priority was ensuring a commercial success. That dream came true: Wicked, directed by Jon M. Chu and starring Cynthia Erivo and Ariana Grande, earned $164 million worldwide in its opening weekend. That’s the biggest box office launch of all time for a Broadway adaptation.
But its box office reign is just one of the reasons that Wicked now feels like a real contender for best picture, as well as several other Oscar categories. David, when you and I saw the film, we both felt pretty good about changing our tune. Why does Wicked’s potential feel so strong at this moment?
David Canfield: With the exception of 2020’s Nomadland and 2021’s CODA—pandemic-era films that won over voters who were stuck at home, streaming nominees on their TVs—the Academy has recently trended toward recognizing major box office success stories. These films have ranged from art house phenomena like Parasite and Everything Everywhere All at Once to the behemoth that was Oppenheimer, but they all share a certain, excitable word-of-mouth quality—in addition to sterling reviews and beloved ensembles. As far as similarly placed Oscar contenders go, this year you have Dune: Part Two—which was a big hit but carries a lot of silly awards baggage as a sci-fi sequel—and Conclave, by far the specialty success of the fall, if not an Everything Everywhere–size juggernaut just yet.
But Wicked feels bigger than both. It’s the overwhelming hit this season has been waiting for, defining a moment for movies at the tail end of an otherwise sluggish fall. In other words, it’s hurtling into the voting windows of December and January with enormous momentum. The film also has the benefit of likely drawing several voting blocs to its corner, from production and costume design to the all-important acting branch—the work of Grande and Erivo is infectiously great, and the film’s supporting cast builds the world out beautifully. If the cast continues getting out there and charming the hell out of Hollywood, there’s plenty of reason to expect a good chunk of the industry to fall hard for Wicked. Especially because it’s such a satisfying, inclusive, feel-good blockbuster—and I don’t know about you, but that feels like the vibe of a best-picture winner coming out of a stressful 2024.
Ford: I think we’re both expecting a lot of below-the-line nominations, as you mention. And with both actors very much in the conversation, all those potential noms would give the film even more support in the best-picture race.
