Few individuals in NBA history loved the three-pointer more than the late Gene Shue. A pro coach for more than 20 seasons, Shue encouraged his players to hoist it from beyond the arc at a time when the shot was mostly seen as exotic. In 1979, the first year the league introduced the three-point line, Shue’s San Diego Clippers chucked 543 threes––121 more than the next-closest team. Shue scoffed at the prevailing wisdom of his peers, who believed that the three-pointer should be reserved as an act of desperation. “That philosophy,” he said, “is in the dark ages.”
More than four decades later, it’s safe to say the league has come around to Shue’s way of thinking. Two months into the NBA season, the three-point shot has never been more fashionable. Teams are averaging about 37.5 attempts per game, the most ever and roughly 15 more than the league average a decade ago. Defending champion Boston Celtics are setting the pace with a record average of 51.1 threes per game, which accounts for more than half of their total shot attempts.
“It used to be that jump-shooting teams couldn’t win a title,” says Dan Devine, a senior NBA writer for Yahoo Sports. “Now I don’t know if you can win a title if you’re not a jump-shooting team.”
The impetus for the NBA’s three-point boom comes down to math: With more sharpshooters in the league than ever before, teams have deduced that the most efficient way to generate points is to launch a high volume of shots from long range, rather than settle for attempts inside the arc. Three, after all, is more than two.
“If you can shoot from way farther out, way faster off the dribble, as opposed to needing somebody to pass it to you, and you can hit those shots at a super high level of accuracy,” explains Devine, “that is a more efficient pathway to offense than throwing it down to a seven-footer on the block and asking him to back down a guy for eight seconds and then maybe get fouled or something.”
But what makes for effective strategy does not necessarily result in an entertaining product. Some hoops fans have bemoaned the glut of three-pointers, which they argue has diminished several elements of the game. Low-post play does not figure as prominently as it once did. Fast breaks that once culminated in thunderous dunks now often lead to players spotting up for an open three. The midrange jumper is all but extinct. And while previous eras offered contrasts in playing styles, the current iteration of the league sometimes feels monotonous. In today’s NBA, everyone is Gene Shue.
The NBA’s sluggish television viewership has emerged as one of the biggest talking points to start the season. Everyone has a theory about the league’s ratings, which to date have dipped 20% relative to last year across its broadcast platforms, according to Nielsen. Conservatives argue that it’s due to the NBA’s social justice initiatives, citing them as another example of the public spurning a business that has gone too “woke.” Industry experts point to consumer trends such as “cord cutting,” which has led to a decline in cable television subscriptions. But others have sought on-court explanations, contending that viewers are tuning out the NBA because the abundance of three-pointers has made the game boring.
Viewership is “down because we’re looking at the same thing,” legendary big man Shaquille O’Neal said last month on his podcast. “Everybody is running the same plays.” Former NBA All-Star B.J. Armstrong likewise lamented last month on The Hoop Genius Podcast that today’s players play like “robots running up and down the court.”
“When I go watch the game, there’s no more creativity, there’s no more imagination,” Armstrong said.
The league, for its part, has reportedly attributed this season’s downturn in viewership to a number of factors, particularly the competition from both the presidential election and World Series, NBA commissioner Adam Silver told Front Office Sports. And after signing a new 11-year, $76 billion media rights deal this past summer with the Walt Disney Company (parent company of ESPN), NBCUniversal, and Amazon Prime, which will go into effect next season, the NBA isn’t exactly sweating over its ratings.
“Obviously, we just had three media partners enter into long-term agreements because of their belief in what our product offers, both on a national and global basis,” says Evan Wasch, executive vice president of basketball strategy and analytics at the NBA. “But certainly some trend lines are pointing downward this year, maybe for one-off reasons that will turn around as the season progresses.”
Nor is the league worried, for now, about the nightly three-point shoot-outs. Silver, for one, flatly rejected O’Neal’s thesis. “I don’t think it has anything to do with the three-point shot,” Silver said last month while discussing the ratings dip with Cheddar. According to Wasch, the NBA’s internal research indicates that fans are, by and large, in favor of the league’s three-heavy style: “Our survey data shows overwhelmingly positive support for current gameplay.”
But Wasch acknowledges that the data may not tell the full story. And a cursory scan of social media on any given NBA night will reveal plenty of fans who aren’t down with the three-point revolution. Likewise, a growing number of individuals who cover the league have voiced support for either rule or structural changes that would curb the number of three-point attempts.
No such changes are under active consideration, but Wasch says that the league won’t hesitate to remedy the on-court product if fans grow disgruntled: “We are absolutely not shy about taking action when team incentives become misaligned with fan incentives.”
Joe Dumars has always dug the long ball.
A Hall of Famer who played his entire 14-year career with the Detroit Pistons, Dumars is still the team’s career leader in three-pointers. In 1994, he tied what was then a league record by draining 10 threes in a win over Minnesota, finishing the game with 40 points. “I love the three-ball,” says Dumars, who now serves as executive vice president, head of basketball operations for the NBA.
But when Dumars entered the NBA in 1985, few of his hoops brethren shared that love. “Coaches were literally saying, ‘Don’t take that shot. You can dribble in two or three more feet and get a better shot.’” Now, he notes, “It’s the exact opposite.”
